Economic downturn = offline advertising (unmeasurable) spend down, online marketing (measurable) spend up?

That’s what a lot of people seem to be saying [here and here]. But not me.

Not entirely anyway. I can see online marketing spend increasing in line with the already forecasted increases, but in terms of a higher jump because of the downturn no.

A downturn should not necessarily lead to an increase spend in measurable online marketing tactics such as PPC and email, instead the growth area will be social media monitoring.

So the majority of spend moved to online in theory should be spent on monitoring services (analysing brand conversations on blogs, forums, social networks etc.) rather than spending on pay per click.

That’s my crystal ball view at least, only time will tell what will really happen.

If you subscribe to the idea that businesses that brand build through traditional advertising, such as TV, during an economic downturn benefit greatly when the economy picks up, then you’ll agree the best thing big brands can do is to push spend to monitoring their brand online. They can use this insight to increase the effectiveness of their brand building activities.

It would be nonsensical to conclude from this that direct response isn’t the way to go. For many businesses budget restraints and aggressive targets there isn’t a choice.

What I am saying is that any business that is thinking of moving spend away because they assume it is the thing to do in the short term should consider the benefits of continuing with awareness building and how social media monitoring can help.

A fair criticism that marketers can point at this analysis is that brand building doesn’t bring in the sales like direct response, but after the downturn you will have to keep selling. When people have more cash they’ll be choosier, and they’ll buy into a brand, not into what suited their pocket the year before.

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This week on my Drapers blog you can read my views on whether newspapers are taking online fashion revenue seriously.

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Newspaper websites have come a long way.

There was a time when they were merely token presences, but they all now seem to be adhering to the ‘the more content the better’ motto. (see Jemima Kiss article on Mirror.co.uk revamp).

Whilst more content is always good, I think the next step for newspapers to understand that in the online world this content should be more pictorial and video led than textual.

A lot of content is good, but too much to read is bad.

I would like to see newspapers offer shorter articles rather than copying the editorial as it appears in print. Web users want to dip in and out and digest quickly.

The skills of journalists are going to be key to the success of newspapers online.

We have a generation of citizen journalists who have access to wide audiences through blogs. They know how to write for the web.

Newspapers need writers that understand the difference between writing compelling print copy and must-read online news. And as newspapers seek extra revenue through affiliate sales, these writers will have to know how to push sales whilst keeping an editorial tone too.

A great challenge for the next generation of great wannabe journos.

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This week on my Drapers blog you can read my views on how Primark should communicate its ethical standards online.

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With everyone apparently “feeling the pinch” discount supermarkets Aldi and Lidl have seen year on year sales rise by 13% and 20% respectively.

It’s the perfect time for Aldi and Lidl to increase marketing activity. With more of their shoppers coming from the middle classes, how can they market themselves to attract more of these affluent shoppers?

Press
Features in the media help Aldi and Lidl remove the stigma attached to discount supermarkets.

Over the past month Aldi and Lidl have benefited highly from analytical coverage surrounding their increase in market share due to the credit crunch.

Almost every article has mentioned the rise of the middle classes shopping in discount supermarkets; which certainly dispels the myth that Aldi and Lidl are the prevail of the underclass.

Note to Aldi and Lidl PRs - more of this please (especially in the broadsheets).

Television
Last week’s Dispatches: The Truth About Food Prices on Channel 4 saw one family save hundreds of pounds by shopping at a discount supermarket.

The homepages of Aldi and Lidl could have contained an article about the programme, and a link to the Channel 4 website to watch it.

A programme featuring discount supermarkets is publicity Aldi and Lidl can’t buy, although it is the type of coverage that will come and go. To keep the coverage alive it’s important that they shout about it online, as that lives forever.

Pay Per Click
Google now allows UK advertisers to bid on competitor names, so Aldi and Lidl should consider bidding on Waitrose, Ocado and Sainsbury’s.

Although Aldi and Lidl are yet to be transactional - and searchers are most likely to be looking for an online ordering solution - it would be a great opportunity for them to gain awareness at a time when shoppers are susceptible to cheaper alternatives.

Videos
Aldi and Lidl should move into creating content.

Nintendo DS – Why not make an interactive cooking guide for the handheld video game player?

YouTube – Simple recipes hosted on a dedicated YouTube channel.

VideoJug – More recipe ideas and also ‘how to save money’ style videos.

I would also put it out there that Aldi and Lidl should also be focusing on communicating clearly how they are able to provide cheaper produce.

As they grow market share rapidly they will be opening themselves up to the same kind of negative coverage that Primark has recently receiving.

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The News of the World has just published news that Heather Mills is dating a “toyboy hunk” called Jamie Walker.

It’s less than an hour after the story was published online and there are currently 47 results in Google for a search on “Heather Mills” “Jamie Walker”, and only the News of the World piece refers to a story on the couple.

I wonder how long it will be before there are millions of web pages mentioning Heather and Jamie.

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If you’ve not yet seen the Amy Winehouse video, where she appears to have turned one of the world’s most innocent songs into a race filled chant, click here.

Below is the Google search results for her name on the day the video first appeared on the News of the World website.

The only mention of the controversial video is within the News Results at the top of the page.

I’ll be monitoring this to see if any of the main listings are taken over by the hundereds of websites and blogs that will no doubt be commenting on it.

It will be interesting to see if this story has more of a viral effect than Amy caught smoking crack on film.

What will cause more online conversation, racism or drugs?

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According to the Law of Attraction, you get what you think about (Watch the Michael Losier video below).

So if you say to someone “don’t slam the door”, they will slam the door. But if you ask them to “close the door quietly” they will close the door quietly.

The premise is, think more about what you DO want and less about what you DON’T.

I thought it would be interesting to look at how this law of attraction rule would affect advertising campaigns, which tell us what NOT to do.

Would they work if they told us what TO do instead?

Let’s take a look at this anti binge drinking advert as an example…

The strapline in the advert includes the term “Don’t Be A Drinkhead”. Going by the previous example this would be a akin to the “don’t slam the door” approach rather than “close the door quietly”.

If the main text

“Every night, binge drinkers put themselves at risk getting into illegal taxis”

was rewritten concentrating on the positive, i.e. how the government DOES want us to act, it could read somthing like this…

“Drink safely. Call for a licensed taxi to get home”

But surely by the law of attraction, Drink safely would encourage people to drink.

“Enjoy yourself. Call for a licensed taxi to get home.” would be another option which encourages enjoyment, and safety, without mentioning alcohol.

Basically there would be more focus on what IS wanted (to keep safe) and less on the behaviour that ISN’T (to put yourself at risk).

Government organisations seem to resort to advertising from the negative. Do “Don’t Drink and Drive” and “Stop Smoking” ads really work, or do they actually glamourise and create more drink drivers and smokers?

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In my last study Cheryl Cole beat her Girls Aloud bandmates hands down and was rated the most talked about Girls Aloud star on the internet.

Now I have analysed who is the most talked about royal couple online, Prince William and Kate Middleton or Prince Harry and Chelsy Davy.

Google Search Results
Kate Middleton - 1,220,000
Chelsy Davy - 269,000
Prince William - 6,890,000
Prince Harry - 1,090,000
Winner: Prince William & Kate Middleton by 84%

Yahoo Images
Kate Middleton - 3,802
Chelsy Davy - 269
Prince William - 112,869
Prince Harry - 12,384
Winner: Prince William & Kate Middleton by 90%

Wikipedia Activity
Kate Middleton - 6 edits so far this month
Chelsy Davy - 9 edits so far this month
Prince William - 45 edits so far this month
Prince Harry - 15 edits so far this month
Winner: Prince William & Kate Middleton

Hellomagazine.com profiles
Kate Middleton - 567 words
Chelsy Davy - 464 words
Prince William - 759 words
Prince Harry - 757 words
Winner: Prince William & Kate Middleton by 8%

Blog mentions in May 2008
Kate Middleton - 1,168
Chelsy Davy - 1,002
Prince William - 11,544
Prince Harry - 3,022
Winner: Prince William & Kate Middleton by 69%

News mentions in the past week
Prince William & Kate Middleton - 743
Prince Harry & Chelsy Davy - 601
Winner: Prince William & Kate Middleton by 19%

OVERALL WINNER: William & Kate

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Two parties. One night. Second stop: The BT PodShow launch party at Shoreditch House.

Shoreditch House is erm… very Shoreditch. Too cool for school, rough around the edges but glam enough for the most fabulous glamonistas.

The perfect place then for BT to launch it’s PodShow website BTPodshow.com.

Who would have thought that one of the UK’s most boring corporate brands would align itself to such a trendy London hang out?

Party goers were “treated” to a collection of video podcasts from the website. The sound of the videos was muted and we listened to the tones of the resident DJ.

Zoe and I missed Alexa Chung’s set as we were too busy people watching at The Hoxton Pony launch, but we did spot a very crazy Alice Dellal and her very EC1 crowd out-trendying (is that a word?) everyone and being the epitome of Hoxton cool.

Visit the BT Podshow website.

Click here to read about The Hoxton Pony launch party

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Bad publicity offline has positive effects online.

By reporting ITV’s record fine from Ofcom, the BBC News website has helped ITV.com’s online rating by linking to it.

Every link to ITV.com that Google finds across the web makes ITV.com more important.

And there’s no stronger link than one from one of the UK’s most respected and high profile websites - BBC News.

with every cloud there’s a silver lining, and ITV’s silver lining in this phone scandal debacle, is a web link from the BBC.

(No link is worth a £5.68m fine, but you get my drift)

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Three Gordon Brown headlines on The Telegraph yesterday that made me chuckle slightly…

Cabinet minister warns Gordon Brown about growing ‘southern discomfort’
May 8 2008

Peter Mandelson lays into Gordon Brown
May 8 2008

Gordon Brown on sofa with Fern [Britton]
May 8 2008

Some would say it’s a Telegraph conspiracy.

Others would say it’s pure coincidence.

I’m going with the latter.

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45 years ago Amancio Ortega and his wife started sewing dressing gowns and lingerie in their living room.

Some $20bn later the owner of fashion chains Zara, Bershka, Pull & Bear and Massimo Dutti is the 22nd wealthiest person in the world.

I can imagine there are a few guys out there that might get a kick from making lingerie at home with the missus.

Personally I think Amancio’s been unlucky. I’ve never sewn anything in my life, and don’t intend to. If I did I’d want to come off a little bit better $20bn richer.

I bet he’s sitting at home now wishing he had a really cool website like this, so he could write blogs about people like Kerry Katona and Harvey from So Solid.

Instead what’s he got? 14,000 employees, successful businesses, $20bn in the bank and a St Tropez tan.

Well bully for you Amancio, bully for you.

Click here for the Forbes fashion billionaires

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Cheryl Cole IS the most famous Girls Aloud member on the internet.

I analysed everything from how many search results each girl attracted on Google and YouTube, the amount of mentions they have on blogs and how many threads they have dedicated to them on their official message board and the popular Digital Spy.

Measuring online popularity adds a different dimension to the commonly tracked newspaper and magazine column inches.

Online popularity measures what individuals are publishing (on blogs and forums) as well as what the major newspapers and magazines are printing.

But if Cheryl came top, who came bottom? Read on…

RESULTS:
1. Cheryl Cole
Cheryl won all but one of the tests hands down. Cheryl’s marriage to Ashley Cole and feature on Will.I.Am’s Heartbreaker has pushed Cheryl’s online fame above that of her Girls Aloud bandmates.

2. Sarah Harding
Photoshoots for OK! Magazine have paid off. Sarah scored particularly well on the Digital Spy Showbiz forum, proving her popularity with celebrity culture vultures is high.

3. Nadine Coyle
Nadine has a high blog mention score, indicating her relationship with Jesse Metcalfe has increased her awareness on American celebrity gossip blogs.

4. Nicola Roberts
Somehow Nicole scored highest on the QDOS test. QDOS uses a number of measures to analyse the digital status of individuals.

5. Kimberley Walsh
Kimberley scored badly when analysing conversations on the official Girls Aloud messageboard.

Winner of each test in italics

Google Search Results
Cheryl Cole - 734,000
Kimberley Walsh - 149,000
Nadine Coyle - 273,000
Nicola Roberts - 234,000
Sarah Harding - 618,000

YouTube Video Tags
Cheryl Cole - 942
Kimberley Walsh - 581
Nadine Coyle - 488
Nicola Roberts - 441
Sarah Harding - 545

Blog mentions
Cheryl Cole - 276,457
Kimberley Walsh - 3,154
Nadine Coyle - 8,584
Nicola Roberts - 3,430
Sarah Harding - 8,405

QDOS Rating
Cheryl Cole - 6331
Kimberley Walsh - 6575
Nadine Coyle - 6684
Nicola Roberts - 6733
Sarah Harding - 6371

Digital Spy Showbiz Forum
Cheryl Cole - 155
Kimberley Walsh - 27
Nadine Coyle - 53
Nicola Roberts - 26
Sarah Harding - 107

Girls Aloud Forum
Cheryl Cole - 6463
Kimberley Walsh - 2845
Nadine Coyle - 4787
Nicola Roberts - 3208
Sarah Harding - 5073

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So Friends Reunited is free and hoping to take on Facebook. Many would say it’s taken ITV, owners of Friends Reunited, far too long to drop the subscription model.

With 19 million registered users the website doesn’t fall into the niche/specialist social network category. Instead it’s hoping to take on the broader networks like Facebook.

Here are five things Friends Reunited has to its advantage over Facebook…

1. The Privacy Debate
Trust in some social networks is decreasing because of debates sorrounding how private data is collected and used for advertising purposes. Friends Reunited as a brand has so far managed not to fall foul of such negative PR.

2. Audience Age
The older audience, who are more likely to worry about their privacy, will have more money to spend, and more free time to use the internet. This means extra revenue driving opportunities and more advertisers seeking [older] people with higher disposable incomes.

3. ITV Network
With ITV.com’s Catch Up service becoming more popular it’s the perfect time to showcase the new Friends Reunited with in-house promotion.

4. Genes Reunited
Genealogy is big business. If they can successfully use genealogy as a hook into the main website they’re onto a winner.

5. It’s British
Nowt wrong with a bit of national pride!

My take is that, although it’s unlikely to rule the social networking world, there is a definitely a market for Friends Reunited.

PS - If you’re impressed with the new Timeline feature on Friends Reunited, I suggest you check out miomi.com

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